The Pentagon has a problem, and it didn’t exactly sneak up on anybody.
The United States is using some missiles and interceptors faster than industry can replace them. Even before the Iran war, the Pentagon’s own 2026 budget said many of the nearly 2,000 critical long-range weapons it planned to buy would already be produced at maximum industrial capacity. Iran turned that production concern into a combat problem.
Five months later, Reuters reports that the Army has used virtually all of its available ATACMS and Precision Strike Missiles. One source also said a little less than half of the U.S. Tomahawk inventory worldwide had been used. The defensive side isn’t much prettier.
Outside estimates put Patriot stocks at roughly 759 to 827 interceptors, down from about 2,330 before the war. THAAD is estimated at roughly 234 to 278, down from about 452. Those aren’t official Pentagon inventory numbers, but Reuters reported that the estimates were consistent with internal U.S. data.
That is where the problem gets serious, because the weapons are being used now while their replacements are measured in years.
The Army’s own budget documents put the AIM-9X manufacturing lead time at 30 months. Add the initial administrative lead time and the total stretches to 42 months. ATACMS tells the same story. Reuters says the United States has used virtually all of its available inventory, while a new production source being developed by Lockheed and Rheinmetall will take more than two years to begin helping refill the stock.
The issue, then, is no longer just how many missiles are left. It is how quickly the industrial base can put them back. Right now, for several critical weapons, combat is moving faster than production.
That is why Deputy Defense Secretary Steve Feinberg has given industry 21 days to return with plans for faster deliveries and higher production. He says development cycles measured in years are no longer acceptable. Fair enough. But saying it is one thing. Building it is another.
The Pentagon wants Patriot production capacity tripled and THAAD production quadrupled. Tomahawk production for U.S. requirements is supposed to climb from about 60 a year to eventually 1,000. That is a hell of a jump, and it will take much more than a bigger purchase order to get there.
Somebody has to build the rocket motor, seeker, guidance package, electronics, control system, airframe, and warhead. Somebody has to machine the parts, test the system, and assemble the weapon. Each of those suppliers depends on suppliers of its own. That is the supply chain. A contract creates demand, but it does not create another rocket motor plant, another machinist, or another production line.
We already saw the same problem developing with drones. Last September, I wrote that the United States was not ready for drone warfare. In July, I returned to the subject as the Pentagon began buying one-way attack drones by the tens of thousands. An Army estimate I cited said a brigade in sustained combat could use 1,000 to 1,500 drones a week. At that rate, 30,000 drones could keep one brigade going for only 20 to 30 weeks, before setting anything aside for training or replacement.
Thirty thousand sounds like a lot until you compare it with the consumption rate. Then it doesn’t look like much at all.
The drone has become ammunition, and the same lesson now applies much further up the weapons chain. The question is no longer only how good a weapon is, but whether you can keep replacing it.
The production problem also begins well before a weapon reaches the assembly line, which brings China into the picture. The day before the Iran attack, the Pentagon was already looking for new supplies of 13 critical minerals used in weapons, semiconductors, and other military hardware. The United States depends on imports for most of them, and China is a dominant producer of all 13.
We don’t have to guess whether China can outbuild us missile for missile to see the danger. Depending on a potential adversary for materials needed to build your own weapons is already problem enough.
We spend a lot of time talking about the weapon itself: range, speed, accuracy, sensors, guidance, and stealth. All of that matters. But once the discussion moves from a single engagement to a sustained war, it comes back to something much simpler: Can you keep the launcher loaded?
Modern war is becoming as much a production contest as a technology contest. It isn’t enough to have the better missile. You need the next missile, and the thousand after that.
The United States knows how to build extraordinary weapons. Now it has to prove that it can keep building them as fast as sustained combat uses them.
The fight works in seconds and consumption in days and weeks, but replacement still works in years.
Using multi-million (or billion as the case may be) dollar weapons to stop massed drones or other cheaper weapons that only cost thousands is not sustainable. You would think the US war department would have learned something about that with the war going on in Ukraine!
This not a “now we know” situation.
Many Department of Defense personnel -military, civilian, support contractors- understood, and warned us about the ineffectiveness of Ballistic- and other missile-defense weapon systems when confronted by drone mass attacks, for decades.
US sea services, among others, experimented with responses for years.
When apolitical DOD leadership was gutted, we sent US servicemembers to fight in the wrong place, with the wrong weapons.
Bingo. Kinda like when the early F-4’s didn’t need guns because air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles were ‘de rigueur.’ Same thing with the A-10. USAF wanted to get rid of ’em and now — suddenly — they’re being upgraded ASAP. I helped test an airplane at Edwards AFB built by Piper in the early 80’s … the PA48 “Enforcer.” It was basically a reborn P-51 with a turbine engine. USAF was forced to test it by Congress, it was a success but never went anywhere because it had a propeller and top brass didn’t want that. Imagine if we had 3,000 of ’em right now hunting things inside Iran. We’d overwhelm them.
Raf,
You still got some brass between your legs to stick your head out of the political foxhole you have been hiding in between the Ukraine and Iran wars, finally coming to the assessment including concluding that we have virtually no manufacturing capability to back up the wars we have started, funded, backed with hardware and US treasure. These last couple of AvBrief articles about the financial fiasco, impossible, corrupt and useless procurement procedures starting in 2016 regarding piecing together two airplanes built, test flown, and then stored since 2015 into operational POTUS transport and aerial command center called Air Force One’s. It’s now 2026…ELEVEN Years Later…NO viable VC-25B with delivery times estimated maybe, kinds sorta, hopefully by 2028! That will be thirteen years for TWO airplanes whose design was finalized in the sixties, production started in 1970, with continuous production until December 6, 2022 with the last to come off the Boeing line a 747-8. 52 years of continuous production with the last variant being the 747-8…built 7 years AFTER both current VC-25B’s were first built, test flown, and put into long term storage. Between Boeing, and all the subcontractors, no one can yet deliver a flyable, capable, security safe 747-8. Nor manufacture windshields or side windows! If someone owns a 747-8, suffering a windshield delamination, or bird strike windshield damage, one cannot get a new replacement windshield. It’s off to the boneyard to safely remove one, ship, and finally transport a used one to where ever the airplane might have ended up at. That does not sound like a well thought out plan of maintenance and procurement for two VC-25B’s. But that is the present reality regarding those two airplanes.
Not only we cannot manufacture weapons, offensive or defensive, they don’t work! THAAD, and Patriot Pac-3’s cannot defend against virtually anything Russia, China, Iran, Yemen, North Korea launches at them. They have maneuverable, hypersonic missiles, latest cruise missile technology with extended loiter capability, drone technology that not only can deliver a lethal blow but can swarm, overwhelming the launching capability. Or, if they do get them off, it takes a minimum of TWO $3 million dollar each Patriot Pac-3’s to identify and hit ONE $20K drone. In defense of the much heralded Iron Dome, Israel was launching as many as EIGHT Patriots to hit one Iranian drone…if it hit it at all. $24 million launched at one $20K drone with no assurance it would be successful. That is why most of the Israeli population lived for weeks in bomb shelters while the Israel AF and IDF infrastructure was decimated including Moussad’s headquarters and Dimona where all of Israel’s nukes (which they claim they don’t have…but the entire planet knows they do) are stored. Lockheed-Martin can only manufacture 559 per year of these expensive boutique weapons. We produced 11 THAAD’s this year! Do the math! One attack with 200 drones would use up 400 Patriots at two to one ratio which is the minimum required. Almost 10 months of production in one attack. Think about how fast an 8-1 ratio would and has emptied the stockpile domestically and abroad. And the added bonus? They are ineffective at best. What can 11 THAAD”s do? Every weapon we have cannot be manufactured in any numbers required when you pick a fight with a peer adversary, let alone, effectively work. China produces 91% of the refined rare earth minerals needed to produce US weapons and aircraft. They have about 61-70% of the raw rare earth minerals globally. Ya think they want to sell that to the US so we can kill them?
F-35 still has an operational readiness of 25-30% under actual war use. Not stealthy either. KC-35’s are barely up to 50% wartime operational readiness for different reasons. They are worn out but depend on the same company, the same supply chain that is supporting the two VC-25B’s. There are over 60 of them clogging up Ben Gurion Airport with no where to go…with only 30 of them mission ready. This looks like a Pearl Harbor event all over again with KC-135’s parked wingtip to wingtip with no air defenses what-so-ever.
Lastly, what we have done to our US Navy. The USS Abraham Lincoln has been at sea, operating at wartime general quarters for almost a year. The crew has no even seen land in over 6 months. The enlisted are short of food, living on 1,000 calories per day. They are working 12 on and 12 off 24/7. The ship is in terrible mechanical state…and has been under attack every night for the last 15 days in the middle of the Indian Ocean. They dare no get any closer because they would be sunk taking 5,000 hungry, overworked, demoralized crew members to their grave. There have been a couple of suicides already. And that does not count those sailors protecting the carrier within the task force aboard their much smaller destroyers. When Bahrain was hit, Iran targeted the Fifth Fleet Headquarters including maintenance, refueling facilities, and the $2 billion dollar radar system. It is all gone and uninhabitable. 2,000 non-combatant sailors stationed there were ordered home to Norfolk, VA. But they had to figure out how to get there. Some were evacuated via military air transport. But many had to find civilian airlines including how to reach an airport that might provide any kind of service. When they arrived at Norfolk, no barracks available, no money, they had only the clothes on their backs, no food, and what little they could carry as all of their personal belongings were left at Bahrain in their hasty departure. The civilian citizens of Norfolk had to step in, taking these sailors into their homes, clothed them, housed them, and fed them. No Navy plan in place to take care of 2,000 sailors who were driven from their base, arriving at home port. Our US news has completely erased these stories from the public view.
We have been gaslit for years we have the most powerful, capable, lethal, military on the planet. The only people still believing that Bravo Sierra is the American public. And I am sure, I am going to get a firestorm of hate replies accusing me of being un-patriotic, banshing me to Moscow, Tehran, or Beijing. However, these facts are already in the history books, recorded on video, pictures via cell phones, experienced by millions all over the planet, and shared on social media globally. I think warning my countrymen that things are not what you think they are is far more patriotic than lying or denying “it ain’t so”. Raf, thanks for your courage to write this commentary. I do think you did your best to make this mess as smooth and palatable as possible. However, you experienced something similar in Vietnam. And I am sure you see what I see. While we may not agree on everything, with both know when the S__T is about to hit the fan. PS Russ, you got Kalunes too allowing Raf to put his commentary out at a time like this. A tip of the Dixie cup to both of you.
No “History 101”, I wouldn’t banish you to Moscow, Tehran or Beijing. And I wouldn’t call you unpatriotic. You make many excellent points and I have heard most of them from real news sources that are independent from the popular propaganda machine we call mainstream news media which is telling us absolutely nothing about what is happening in the world for real. Current mainstream media is actually worse than a news media blackout because they give us lies and diversions that sound like news, but are actually calculated to distract us from understanding the reality of the situation.
History 101, thank you.
We may not agree on every detail, but I appreciate the spirit of your comment and your kind words to both Russ and me.
My purpose was not to take a political side or declare that every American weapon is ineffective. It was to put the production problem plainly before the reader.
Having experienced the M16 debacle in Vietnam from the bottom of the chain, I know what poor decisions look like when they finally reach the person carrying the weapon.
Your tip of the Dixie cup is gratefully returned.
Raf,
I fully understand your intentions. We both know the subject is polarizing, with politics rearing its ugly head. But it still takes courage backed by integrity to allow the reader to be exposed to the truth of our lack of capabilities. I simply added more information to expose the reader in addition to the considerable, currently unsolvable production problems , the outrageous, needless, unpatriotic, country destroying, corruption of incredible costs, for weaponry that does not work other than being used against defenceless third world/emerging countries, we have already destroyed internally from the inside out via economic sanctions through the petro dollar.
Those internal invasions via making every economic transaction subject to the American dollar funneled through US banks allows America to decide when and if the country will get paid for services and/or resources provided. Every drop of Iraqi oil, or Saudi Arabian oil they sell on the global market has to be sold in dollars and paid for in dollars, for example. That means enormous amounts of US dollars goes directly to the US banks out of the control of Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Then we decide, when and if we will actually settle up with them for the oil already provided, in the belly of a tanker, on its way to its destination. Often, like in Venezuela now, they get nothing for their oil. They used to get at least a mere 10%. The $300 billion dollars promised to Iraq as aid is not coming from America. Instead America is going to give them a portion of their money already owed. Hey, its better than nothing, and a further threats of economic sanctions. And the economic sanctions language tidies up the reality of causing mass, genocidal, starvation to civilian populations because they don’t have any control over the basic necessities of life such as food, fuel, clean water, decent housing, medicine etc…because they are held in a virtual chokehold by withholding funds due them or at best a very small portion of it. More death and destruction is accomplished this way, than the most sophisticated offensive weaponry. Since 1970, over 38 million people of which 51% is children mostly under 7. Madeline Albright said killing 500,000 Iraqi kids was a good investment. Likewise Lindsey Graham said losing 2.5 million Ukrainians, and 100,000 Russians was worth every penny because no US soldiers killed ( another lie) in weakening Russia. Russia is still here, intact, and is taking what’s left of Ukraine. That NATO war is lost.
So, this death and destruction via the US dollar as a trojan horse means absolutely nothing to both sides of the aisle. That financial trojan horse is what finances our almost one trillion dollar debt payment not even touching one red cent towards a 40 trillion dollar national debt.
But what if, a few of these countries says no more, builds an alternative monetary system, at the same time investing their resource’s in their own country, working trade alliances for what they don’t have but can trade recourses they do have for what they don’t, and make payments and purchase with their own currency, or finance their needs with banks that will honor their currency arrives? Well, it has, 20+ years in the making called BRICS. Now every drop of Iranian oil is sold in Chinese currency with a system that allows one day settlements of those purchasing in their own currency if they like. However, since over 60% of the global population representing the largest portion of the global GDP is already trading with the largest manufacturer of consumer good on the planet, who has not one gun leveled at them, who has the capability if needed to militarily protect them , whose goal is NOT the global hegemon but wants to trade with everybody….Why would you go to the US dollar who cannot deliver anything but hardship as demonstrated since 1945?
But the US population does not believe this reality, mostly because in spite of $40 trillions of dollars in national debt, there is food in the store, gas is still cheap enough to afford for most, and we believe we are the most moral country that justifies killing millions of people as long as they are over there, and we don’t have to see it…we chalk all this up to either the other party,’s fault, messianic inevitability as preached week after week, or simply ignorance. But most of us have a bad feeling in the gut, that something really bad is going to happen. We hope and many pray it won’t. And will happen in the coming days, or months? Don’t know. But by November 3rd, we will find out how bad, bad really is.
Iran has won the war against the US and Israel. Now its in the process of removing the US from the middle east. The USS Abraham Lincoln is on the verge of mutiny. And 25% of the global sour crude is off the market and will not be seen for years. the petro dollar is on its way out. The Ponzi finance scheme is about to collapse and we will feel what Russia, China, and Iran has endured since 1945 at the hands of US economic sanctions.
TY you and Russ for opening the door to allow a discussion for at least a few people to make decisions on how they are going to handle a US depression. I am adding “the rest of the story”.
Commenting on the same thing every other commenter is commenting on is not an example of courage. It’s joining the chorus. One writes “Not only we cannot manufacture weapons, offensive or defensive, they don’t work!” We can, we do, they work very well, and improve every day. These kinds of comments invite hyperbolic nonsense.
So now we know. We are blessed at the timing for this stress test. We have the lead time to hit the ground running and to be better prepared for when we need to defend our people and country. And we can make a boatload of money by making this stuff for the truly unprepared countries in Europe who are staring at the muzzle of the AK.
There are some good books written about the spectacular rise of American wartime manufacturing in WWII. Read “Freedom’s Forge” by Arthur Herman, for example. We can do this as we prepare to embark on WWIII.
A word of caution; there will be even more billionaires created in the process of putting this newer and bigger force. Some nattering nitwits who want more guns will howl about profiteering, just as was done 80 years ago.
Within a defensive posture, calculating threat assessments and political probabilities determine munition needs. When one is the aggressor, that posture is never enough.
Who is the aggressor in the conflict with Iran?
The point is not to find fault in who struck the first blow, rather, it is understanding how munition need is calculated. Iran may very well have been tagged the aggressor, and prepared accordingly. But that preparation, munition wise, is clearly different than a defensive role, and the focus on deterrence. But that’s in a perfect world, and war is far from perfect, no matter the label.
Iran… 47 years ago… I remember it vividly.
I see that AvBrief is rapidly becoming like all the rest of social media–a popularity contest rather than a means to foster discussion. If AvBrief wants serious commentary here with a full gamut of viewpoints it should abolish the idiotic voting system. That way, if someone doesn’t agree with another’s viewpoint they will have to actually post a response rather than simply click the hate button.
For those of you who downvoted, would you care to explain why? I asked a question, I didn’t make a statement. Why would you downvote a question seeking clarification?
Mark, most of the downvotes come from trolls or political grandstanders who simply cannot engage on a intellectual level. Irrelevant. Move on.
Russ hasn’t announced what one can buy with all the upvotes or has to pay for all the downvotes. Political topics are highly popular.
We shot first. Not 47 years ago, that is more than a generation ago. In the current war/conflict with Iran, we shot first, we are the aggressor. I remember as a kid some 55 years ago that we were the good guys because we don’t shoot first. My belief was another of the orange one’s distraction tactics.
We? The USA never shoots first? In which century was that?
WWI, WWII, Korea (yes, yes, Korea was a Police Action, not a “war”). I was brought up by family from those generations. As I said, when I was a kid and veterans from those wars were my family. When we could have respect for our country and our leaders.
I suggest you read some more history books. Start in the nonfiction section….
One of my favorite sections. Ever read Flying Fortress by Edward Jablonski or The United States Navy in WWIi by S.E. Smith? If you have some other suggestions, please let me know.
Just read McCullough title The Path Between the Seas, which reviews the long and convoluted history of the building of the Panama Canal.
Very few were killed in the Panamanian revolution, fortunately. Indeed, few shots were fired and it’s not clear exactly by whom. But to look at the events and conclude that the US didn’t start something would be the height of naivete. Don’t be that.
It’s a huge tome, so absolutely get the electronic version from your favorite app, unless you just need a good doorstop, too, or have a wide gap on your bookshelf in need of filler…..
All of this is true; before the Ukraine war, lead times for new PAC-3 MSE interceptors was already measured in years… and that’s just for the rounds, not the engagement station, radars, etc.
But there are two other fundamental supply chain constraints that are not getting significant attention. For funsies, look into where smokeless powder is made and where rocket motors come from, and consider those two items as bottlenecks. Even if you can build 100K drones in a month (which, maybe, given enough time; not all of them are terribly complex) you still need to be able to put warheads in them. Look at the fiasco around producing 155mm artillery shells as a guide.
Frankly I’m surprised that everyone seems to be surprised by this. The problem isn’t new. The matter was of concern and addressed in the defense/military press at least as far back as the early 1980s. Things were so expensive that it impacted the ability to fight a protracted conflict. I remember a quote from an analyst pointing out that the problem had already been demonstrated in 1973 in the Yom Kippur War: “The Israelis planned for a short war, and they almost got one…”
The problem are the liberals Raf who don’t want to fund the military, ever, even when obviously necessary.
Yeah, that’s the problem! It’s always the damned liberals! It has nothing to do with the fact that President Trump started an illegal war (still not approved by Congress) nor the fact that our Secretary of Defense has absolutely ZERO qualifications to be in that role. Nope. It’s the liberals – definitely.
Now now, it’s not a war but a “little excursion”, which will last two weeks at most.
An “illegal” war … define that comment! And I guess you’re not old enough to remember Korea, Viet Nam or other non-approved wars since WWII.
Iran has been SHOUTING “DEATH TO AMERICA” for 47 years. They were close to being in a position to make it happen so action was called for. IF it did, you guys would be shouting … “Why didn’t he do something.” There’s no making you people happy. If only autopen Man were still in power, I guess thing’s would be mucho better? And I’m sure all you know it all’s have all the same intelligence the President does to support your premises, too.
And tell me how previous SecDef’s WERE qualified to fill that position. Many of ’em never served a day in uniform EVER! Is THAT what makes ’em “qualified?” SecWar is precisely THE best guy for the job right now IMHO but … I’m sure I’ll be piled onto momentarily. Too bad … I don’t care.
Shouting death to America is not an act of war.
True, but the invasion of an embassy and taking hostage of the diplomats and embassy staff is! I don’t advocate going to war without following the Constitution (congressional war declaration), but since no adminstration has taken action since 1979, now we have to eliminate the threat because with nuclear weapons and the rockets Iran has developed have enabled Iran to carry out its “death to America and Israel” threat. If the US had taken action in 1979 after the hostages were returned we wouldn’t be dealing with this issue now. President Obama’s attempt to appease Iran didn’t work and probably made things worse. Sorry for the thread drift but I still remember the reaction of a local sports reporter on live TV after all the reports and videos that aired after the US embassy was invaded and the lame reaction by the president in 1979.
This statement is factually false. For example, defense spending increased over Obama’s first term and it increased over the course of Biden’s term.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FDEFX
Apparently not enough …
Tommy, you and I disagree on this one, as we have on others. You have been outspoken, consistent, and willing to criticize my commentary for years.
I may not agree with your views, but I respect your willingness to speak plainly. Thanks for weighing in.
In combination, today’s “issue “ of AvBrief is probably the most important (IMHO) I’ve read so far, with apparently serious expertise commentary about several of the most pressing issues facing not only GA pilot/owners, but all of us as American citizens. I will certainly save/archive this one. Kudos to Russ and AvBrief’s journalists for your efforts.
While you absolutely have the RIGHT to print your opinion, you also have a corresponding responsibility to not to reveal intelligence of this kind of to the enemy during a military conflict. Geraldo Rivera did something similar during Desert Storm and was removed from in-country reporting. Some say he was proving aid and comfort to the enemy. Worst case scenario: think Jane Fonda – Viet Nam. As Pogo would say: take care the words you use, keep them soft and sweet, for you never know which ones you’ll have to eat.
“Reveal intelligence”?
Are you talking about the author’s intelligence? …Because that was already publicly established.
As for the contents of the article: While well-written, it contains no classified or controlled information; everything discussed is already publicly known. Any “enemy” of the USA is already well-aware of the situation the US is facing.
Pogo did not, and I assert as a lifelong reader of Walt Kelly, would not have said any such thing, Floyd. It took me barely a dozen milliseconds to discover that the quote you mangled was actually written by Henriette Eiby Christensen.
While her point is valid in general, your point is based on the assumption that anything revealed in this forum would come as a surprise to “the enemy”. That’s called, in the kindest way, “asserting facts not in evidence”.
Enjoy your own literary lunch Floyd, and check your sources before you post.
Talking openly about make believe (Reuters) or actual shortages hurts our warfighters. Very irresponsible. Leakers should be identified and prosecuted.
“Leakers should be identified and prosecuted”. How very Russian and or Chinese of you!
A lot of people don’t understand how security stuff works in the US.
In many countries…Great Britain, for instance…they have an “Official Secrets Act.” This means that if anyone gets access to “official secrets” it’s a crime to disclose them.
I’m sure some folks would like to see such laws here, but it’s the kind of thing that can be abused too easily. For instance, the administration could claim that anything about Epstein was a “national secret” and prosecute anyone who mentioned the name.
OK, so if you’re riding the bus, and a top secret memo drops in your lap…what can you do with it?
The Government could always claim that the physical document itself was Government property, and thus you are holding stolen goods. But running the document through a copy machine (or making a digital copy) gets you beyond that.
What they can do to you depends on what you do next. Post the document online? Drop it off at the New York Times? Not criminal acts.
Show up at the Russian embassy and offer it to them? NOW you’re into a criminal act: You’re violating espionage laws.
One might argue that posting the document publicly online constitutes giving it to the Russians, but the courts don’t seem to think it reaches the level of espionage.
Now, there is an exception to this. If you have a security clearance, and release data outside the areas where it is permitted to be, then you have violated and Executive Order and are subject to prosecution. But this doesn’t apply to “ordinary” citizens. For that Executive Order to apply to you, you need to have accepted it. That’s what all the paperwork is when you get a security clearance, you’re acknowledging that the Executive Orders related to security, and the laws that allow you to be prosecuted, now apply to you.
But it doesn’t apply to anyone else. If you give a classified document to a Washington Post reporter, *you* are guilty of violating the Executive Order, but it can’t be made to stick to them.
Thank you Ron. Very clear explanation. Official secrets should never be leaked and that type of person should be prosecuted. If information gained through publicly available databases and interpreted by someone who puts 2 and 2 together, and reports on it, is selling a news story. If we we’re in a total war for survival, I would like to think that the press would do things like were done in WWII, where they didn’t report on things that could damage the war effort. Luckily, the war that we started with Iran is not a war for our survival. Although it is a war of survival for our men and women in uniform near the battle areas, AND the innocent Iranian people who just want to live their lives. And YES, I don’t like the government of Iran either, but a countries people is not synonymous with it’s government.
Ideally, reporters involved would not include details that are injurious to operations. Practically, that’s not an easy decision to make.
For example, assume a reporter finds huge corruption within the Patriot missile contract. Yet, if he or she reports that, it’s likely to disrupt production and may lead to the death of American service members.
Where does the reporter’s duty lie? More to the point, *who* makes that decision? We obviously don’t want those involved in the corruption having the ability to declare that their activities are “official secrets” with the ability to throw said reporter into the hoosegow.
I’ll take a free press, thank you very much.
If I were China and I was looking longingly at the Strait of Taiwan (or the island nation itself), I’d be rubbing my hands in glee at the US running itself low on stockpiles… The lengthy time to resupply, in the wake of the Iran conflict, gives China a window within which they can know, with some certainty, that the US will be less-likely to put up resistance and less-able to provide arms supplies to Taiwan (or any other nation in the region that would want to defend itself).
The failure to keep the global strategic picture in-focus when considering things like procurement/resupply and initiating regional conflicts is a damning endictment of multiple political and military leaders. Being a global superpower is a hard balancing-act, which is exactly why it requires expertise and careful consideration – yet it is vital to the economic success of the US and its citizens.
[Sadly, too few of those citizens are given good explanations or education around the connection between diplomacy, military posture, and economic well-being; but that’s a different show…]
Add to the mix that high-tech weapons rely heavily on semiconductors manufactured in Taiwan.
Other lessons we are providing to international and non-state leaders:
-“freedom of the seas” is no longer a priority for the US;
-the US Navy does not have the ships, weapons, or range to keep seas open.
As others have mentioned, evolving weapons capability & limitations is not a new story, nor is the effectiveness of swarming attacks against point targets: “Quantity has a quality all its own.”
Previous administrations, however, did not choose to send US servicemembers into conflicts when US munitions were so scarce, US weapons so ineffective, or foreign partners so absent.
“…or foreign partners so absent.”
Indeed, sir. A scary idea to be sure.
Ultimately we’re dealing here with the futility of war. History with a few, but a very few exceptions is replete with a record proving that futility. February to August 2026 now takes its place in the annals of history as part of that record. There are few examples better than the current one which demonstrate futility, not to mention the incompetence and chest thumping that got us here.
Peace is that brief moment in history when everyone stands around reloading!
Peace is when humanity ultimately learns the lesson history has demonstrated, namely that standing around reloading is as futile as war itself.
Pacifism brings about the very thing it fears! Unilateral disarmament is always the default position you leftist! And it would be the end of this country! No thanks!
Thanks for the pacifist compliment Jerry. It would be easier for me to accept the compliment were I consistently able to live up to the ideal.
Obama and Biden cut military spending to the bone!
That’s the headline often shouted. But in actual numbers the reductions were modest, especially in comparison to the 50% increase that the Trump administration is seeking.
They also kept their military spending within that bone. I’d say the current administration is spending money like drunken sailors, except that’d be an insult to drunken sailors.
False. Defense spending increased over Obama’s first term and it increased over the course of Biden’s term.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FDEFX
Any idea of the status of ammunition stocks for the GAU-8 cannon? It’s the gun on the A-10, and it’s only used by the A-10 and the Dutch Navy. At 6,000 rounds per minute, there’s got to be a lot of expended rounds sitting in the sand or at the bottom of the Strait.
During WW2 it took a great deal of time to crank up full scale production of weapons and other systems, including ammunition production to support the war effort. It was a massive effort and was fortunately successful. Not to mention that in order to do it, industry needed to curtail ordinary production for the civilian market, creating a lot of hardship for the American citizenry. To expect this to happen today might be questionable at best. It could happen but it would require a great deal of “buy in” on the part of the public. Could that happen? Maybe, maybe not. Depends upon the public attitude regarding the war. IF we were attacked, I think the public would generally support a war effort. If it was an “optional” war, I suspect it would be a tough sell.
Exactly. We were being warned about Hitler but didn’t want to get involved in another “foreign war”. Japan was wreaking havoc in the Pacific, and we didn’t want to get involved. They had to attack us directly. THEN the American people got involved.
During the VN War in 1969 I was a US Army SF Officer, and my A Team was commanding Asian light airborne infantry contract troops. At one point there was a critical shortage of a particular type of munition. One of my NCO’s asked me “how could the wealthiest country in the world run low on any type of ammunition?” The type is immaterial but note that it was difficult to produce and expensive. I told him that just because we were wealthy was no guarantee that we could produce complex expensive stuff at will. My comment still holds true.
One thing that the author touched upon but was not mentioned is the military’s dependence on semiconductors manufactured in Taiwan. Imagine if China formed a blockade around the island and nothing got out. It would make COVID’s supply chain problems look like child’s play.
As far as production is concerned, hopefully throwing money at it will solve part of the problem as I’m sure the likes of Lockheed and Raytheon will be more than willing to accommodate.
But the one thing I know about this little two week excursion into Iran is that China and Russia are taking copious notes.
Buy LMT and RTX and the next great thing and get politics out of the aviation news, even editorials. TDS vs 47 plus years of Facts… Foul. Unless you want to go year to year, fact to fact.
Another good article RAF. At the end of the (last) cold war, DOD went to all the major Prime Contractors and told them that at least half (1/2) of them needed to go away. That defense industrial capacity and expertise is gone forever.
Thanks, Steve. This chart traces the consolidation of defense contractors from 1980 to 2015. The so-called “Last Supper” came in 1993, when the Pentagon made clear that many contractors would have to merge or disappear. The result is remarkable. Take a look.
As a retired senior enlisted guy who was heavily involved in the procurement / testing part of USAF business in the 70’s and 80’s, I agree that’s a large part of the problem, Steve. The bean counters got command of the military and destroyed not only a large industrial base but also the wide physical distribution of same. Raf’s chart shows that. I have long said that the military needs a large warehouse full of ‘toys’ from which to draw from depending upon need. Depending only on high technology (at high cost) is great but if you don’t have enough of that sort of thing … technology multiplication only works so far and for so long. Sometimes, being overwhelmed by numbers needs a like response. Methinks Iran learned this?
A good example would be the B-2 ‘Spirit.’ When I went to work on it after retirement, the order was for 132 airplanes. Suddenly, big bad Russia dissolved and we didn’t need stuff like that anymore. So, 132 became 100, then 75, then 50 and — finally — USAF was ordering them one at a time. In the end, only 20 were built plus the test airplane was converted to full production status. Subsequently, 2 crashed so we only have 19. I was IN the production hangar and watched the tooling being drug outside so Russian satellites could see it being destroyed. What a crock. I KNEW that was a mistake. We shoulda built two squadrons of 20 plus 10 to be in overhaul at any given time. And during my time there, Northrop became Northrop Grumman and nearly every week an announcement would come on the intercom or company newspaper listing what ‘new’ companies Northrop had purchased.
Same thing with the F-22 Raptor. IT was supposed to be 750 airplanes but production was stopped after a total of 187 airplanes were built. Thankfully, along came an airplane called the F-15EX which — while not as good — will take care of a lot of the missing mission capabilities the non-produced Raptors woulda taken care of. I worked a very early F-15 built for climatic test circa 1974. Then, the company was McDonnell Aircraft which became, McDonnell Douglas which became Boeing.
NOW, we’re learning high technology ONLY is not the answer. The A-10 retirement cancellation is an example. A simple robust airplane that is slow, isn’t stealth but does the job is sometimes the best way to deal with a threat. I’d venture to say Ukraine would give some eye teeth to get command of about 50 of ’em? The Piper PA-48 Enforcer I mentioned above would be a great airplane to have in great numbers just now.
The problem is that there are too many chefs cooking the situation. Congress doesn’t appropriate enough funds or fast enough, senior military leaders are basically inept despite being sent to all manner of military academies and colleges. Budgetary constraints force them to make poor decisions and their personal biases often lead them astray. There’s enough blame to go around. Even currently … while we — here — are talking about shortages, SecWar is asking for an increased $1.5T budget but too many chefs with too many opinions are screwing up the ‘stew’ and holding back that appropriation request. If we’re short … build stuff. If not … shut up. None of us here really knows or were in the SCIF where decisions are being made.
SIGH !!
I too worked on many of those programs Larry. As taxpayers, all of that priceless tooling belonged to us.
While trying to perfect the art of war and pontificating about which politician(s) is (are) to blame, we always neglect to mention the kids coming home in body bags. The loved ones answering the doorbell or phone probably don’t care about our opinions. Maybe instead of focusing on recruiting kids from ghettos, barrios, and trailer parks, we should aim straight for the affluent pasty white suburbs. Better yet, the politicians’ children and grandchildren should be the first to go.
There used to be a Christian Doctrine of Just War. Unless we are attacked, we don’t preemptively attack someone. Trump is rotten for Iran, but the intellectuals here who prostrated themselves before their Lenin-esque “Hope” posters soon forgot that Mr. Hope and Change had no problem taking out a few dozen innocents to get one bad guy via drone strikes, even once taking out an American citizen on foreign soil, depriving him of his fair trial by a jury of his peers.
Thanks in advance for the rebukes and lectures, since I’m sure all the experts here, like myself, have received that phone call at 4:06 in the morning and had to hear that scream from their wives.
…tell me, in what universe does intercepting $50K Shaheds and cheap stovepipe missiles with $2 million Patriots makes sense? And, when those in charge lose sight of how many of those weapons Iran can build (or get from North Korea and Russia essentially for free) they act with utter bewilderment. When the Patriot stocks fall to record lows, suddenly the fallback is “but Obama…” and “but Biden…”. Our astonishingly capable and dedicated military is being led at the top by clueless idiots, whose previous qualifications amount to spending time quacking on fox “news”. Yee hah.
Why are the media and government trumpeting to our enemies that US ability to defend itself is compromised? Gotta love a click based economy.
Any “enemy” capable of doing us harm already knows. Easy enough for their operatives to find out the same information via public-source information. *They* see the S-3s and other planes destroyed on the ramps, *they* can count the various items of ordnance coming their way and subtract them from the known total, *they* see the investment data for various US companies that summarize their defense contracts, *they* have hackers breaking into various systems to find the information they need.
The argument is basically on whether the American people should know. “Good gosh, they may vote for my opponent if they know the truth!!!!”
Looking at the large number of comments, politics with the resulting decision making still dominate the responses, followed with spend more money to solve production issues. Next was “it just ain’t so” regarding our overall defense/offensive system’s poor performance. Several reminded us that we had great production during WWII meaning we can rally ’round the flag and do it again in 2026. Many seem to feel that WWII “big arrow” tactics still apply today. In other words…get a bigger hammer…cost is irrelevant.
I am apolitical, 9 year Navy vet, not a Christian nor a part of any other faith or religion, not a conservative, liberal, libertarian, rather I evaluate by performance with integrity to make my decisions regarding my vote and public stand. I am not perfect but apply the same principles to myself. Walk the talk…and when I fail…own up to the failure, learn from it to ideally, not repeat it, and accept the consequences for whatever I failed at. So, voting for me has nothing to do with either Blue if it’s not Red or Red if not Blue. NO either/or. Likewise, not being a Christian does not make me a pagan. I don’t need a religion or book to know the difference between right or wrong. And folks like me in America are not a minority anymore.
I give that background to comment on this…Few say anything about killing others outside of the US. A few did say, they are concerned about American’s coming home in body bags, very few commenting about America’s self proclaimed global hegemony, colonizing attitude. Therefore, it’s our way or I attack you BECAUSE we are exceptional, having a superior government, and since our government is by the people for the people, we the people are exceptionally superior. Where did our exceptional, superior weaponry come from? ANSWER: From superior research, engineering, coming from superior education, and produced by superior means of manufacturing. And to keep that global hegemon title, it takes big bucks, a global finger in the global pie of every country’s resources, a global presence in virtually every country outside our borders, and make damn sure, every import or export from every country is paid for in American Greenbacks, funneled through US banks, through the US owned, engineered SWIFT system of settlements. And if any country, and I mean literally, any country does not comply with this global economic system, America will economically sanction you into total starvation. If that economic starvation does not cause enough literal pain to the “misbehaving” country’s government, we fund insurrectionists encouraging the civilian population to over-throw their “misbehaving” government. We can attack militarily or by any means necessary including installing a proxy sympathetic to US hegemony, to bring you into our ideological, political, and economic compliance irrespective of another’s culture and wishes. Because we are the global hegemon, masters of the global economic order, owners of the most powerful, lethal military, and by those descriptions are the only global SUPERPOWER. That is what unipolar means. One way, that is our way, and conformity to that superior ideology…or else…”we will bomb you into the Stone Ages”‘( as if there were multiple Stone Ages)…and destroy your civilization to teach you a lesson. And all of this warfare, mayhem, sanctioning, and chaos done while saying In God We Trust or more recently, Praise be to Allah.
Since 1970, 38 million people have died from economic sanctions instituted by primarily the US and secondarily by Europe. 51% are children. During the 70’s there were on average, 15 countries under Western unilateral sanctions. These sanctions sought to strangle access to finance, restrict international trade, destabilize industries, and create crisis to provoke state collapse. Widespread malnutrition, lack of clean water, electricity, and shortages of medicine result. During the 90’s and 2000’s an average of 30 countries were under Western unilateral sanctions, now more than 60.
The problem is for America, those who survive this onslaught, learn how to live with less, get out from under the US dollar, therefor becoming self sufficient while getting back their sovereignty, become quite adept in defending themselves. It does take time, often a generation. Since 2000 Russia, China, and Iran have survived Western US led sanctions to being self sufficient enough using their cultural advantages such as excellent yet free education, universally available free healthcare, and using their hard won assets to employ these now highly educated people, largely middle class applying this knowledge to solving national problems including how to defend themselves from the US hegemony. in 1960, the largest by population country on the planet…China… was also the poorest. IN 66 years from the poorest to becoming the largest economy, largest manufacturing system, largest middle class, having the highest GDP of any country…still growing at 5-7%, leading the way in practical use of green energy selling electricity as an export commodity, high speed transportation with 200mph bullet trains that connect all over the country, affordable, durable electric cars, trucks, busses that are sold globally ( accept to the US), advanced 5th generation fighters with hypersonic weaponry to name a few of their accomplishments. They have never attacked us.
Russia is still the most sanctioned nation on earth, have been attacked with every piece of NATO weaponry, guided by US, British, and Israeli intelligence, paid for by the US taxpayer, and design, manufacture, the best in hypersonic missile offensive and defensive technology, with an incoming enemy Western drone, missile, using their own independent global position system providing precise targeting info able to handle swarms larger than 500 that has established a battle tested 95%-99% effectiveness of interception. And by the way, also have the most nuclear weapons. They have not attacked the US either.
Iran has proven in battle with the US, they dominate their skies preventing the US of flying over their territory forcing America and Israel to use only standoff weapons, the first to shoot down an F-35, have destroyed over 42 US airplanes and helos, shut off and control the Strait of Hormuz, demolished 17 US bases that surround Iran, forcing the US Navy to stay at least 600 miles off the coast of Iran or be sunk, and using highly maneuverable hypersonic missiles that we have no defence against, and perfected long range drone technology with loiter capability all manufactured in house underground. Iran has never attacked the US.
Yemen, Hezbollah, and Hamas has never attacked the US. But all designed, engineered and built drones and hypersonic missiles in house, sending our US Navy back to Norfolk for repairs, shot down over 30+ MQ-9’s, destroyed three Super Hornets, closed off Saudi Arabia of all oil exports, and control the Red Sea. They too have been under decades of US sanctions losing hundreds of thousands of women and children to the siege imposed on them.
We are going to feel this economic pain nationally very soon. 60% of US dollars are overseas. We spend more on national defence than the next six largest countries combined including China, Russia, and Iran. Look at the Monthly Treasury Report, MTR, and see for yourself what we spent in July of 2026…and what we took in. $462 billion dollar deficit in one month. Just type in Monthly Treasury Report. It takes you directly to the US treasury report of incoming money and outflow of expenses.July’s report was updated and uploaded 8/12/26. Then decide if throwing more money, getting a bigger hammer, threatening more countries with economic sanctions, attacking another country for our quest to be the global hegemon is something you are comfortable with for you, your family, your kids and grandkids.
History 101: thank you for the closing line: grandkids are my greatest concern.
I’ve made many mistakes in my life, but every day I wake to work to reduce the harm, and make the world better, for them.
The factory model is restock, not just in time. Hence, my previous thoughts. So the tagline was in basic error, Raf.
No, go chase news-
https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/u-s-and-ukrainian-forces-went-head-to-head-in-an-exercise-ukraines-drones-won-cc3663d5