The Ukraine-Russian war has spoken. Drones are no longer the future. They are in a fight now. China, Turkey, and Israel use them every day. The United States is still catching up.
Back in Vietnam, mortars set the scale of small unit firepower. We fired, adjusted, and waited. Damage was only known when patrols went forward. Slow and risky. Today a soldier pulls a quadcopter from a pack, sees the target live, drops grenades into trenches, crashes into armor, while commanders watch and plan in real time. Mortars once covered an area. Drones search, aim, and strike with pinpoint precision.
Reuters reports drones are now the dominant battlefield killer, responsible for most of Russia’s losses. A UN report found they caused more civilian deaths on the front line than any other weapon. China turned Shenzhen into the “Drone Capital of the World” and built swarms into its doctrine.
Ukraine’s top drone commander told Reuters, “Not a single NATO army is ready to resist the cascade of drones.” RAND analyst Scott Boston says U.S. doctrine lags. CNAS analysts Paul Scharre and Stacie Pettyjohn warn training is shallow. Samuel Bendett of CNA says America is slower to adapt. Even the Army’s own association admits brigades still do not train together on drone tasks.
The Pentagon points to Replicator. Replicator 1, launched in 2023, aimed to field thousands of small, cheap drones fast to offset China’s numbers. Replicator 2, in 2024, shifted to defense, focused on stopping swarms of enemy drones that can hit U.S. bases and troops. The plan is to use sensors, AI tools, and modular weapons to find, track, and kill drones in any environment.
At Fort Rucker, Maj. Gen. Clair Gill said, “We need to do this quickly because the future is now.” Col. Nicholas Ryan added, “We need to start treating drones like any other piece of a soldier’s kit.” An executive order banned Chinese drones and pushed U.S. production. Firms like AeroVironment, Skydio, Teal, and Shield AI build solid systems, but nowhere near China’s output.
The fight has changed, and the U.S. is still not ready.
“A UN report found they caused more civilian deaths … than any other weapon.”
Just wait until that technology comes to the Pizza Hut near your airport, c.f. “Drone Repellent” article.
I hear you on the civilian drone mess in your rotor world.
So Raf, this Lockheed News Release came out on the 21st. and you did this article on the 23rd. Why would you not just post this Lockheed News Release in your story?
https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2025-09-21-Lockheed-Martin-Vectis-TM-Best-in-CCA-Class-Survivability
Good point Klaus. I wrote the piece on September 18th. Lockheed’s release came out on the 21st, after my draft was finished. That’s why it wasn’t included. The release is notable, but it doesn’t change the point, the U.S. is still behind in drones.
One more thing… Vectis was still under wraps on the 18th. Lockheed didn’t disclose it until September 21st at the Air & Space Forces Association conference. It was a Skunk Works secret until they rolled it out with the press release.
Thanks for your service and great article Raf. I worked on a Lockheed UAV call the Aquila back in the 1980’s. It was very heavy and very expensive. A manned air vehicle manufacturer will probably not be the best source for unmanned air vehicles that need to be inexpensive.
Steve, thanks for your note and for your work on Aquila. You are right. It was heavy, expensive, and tried to do too much. A manned aircraft builder was not the best source for an unmanned system that had to be light and cheap. Aquila was ahead of its time but built with the wrong DNA.
The arc looks like this:
1. WWII: radio guided bombs
2. Vietnam: jet recon drones like the Firebee
3. Cold War: target drones turned into spies
4. 1980s: battlefield UAV attempts, Aquila at the front even if it failed
6. 1990s: Predator proves the concept
7. 2000s: armed drones drive counterterrorism
8. 2020s: drones become the dominant battlefield killer, cheap, fast, swarming
Aquila belongs in that line. It did not survive, but its lessons did. Today a $500 FPV can do what million dollar programs once struggled to deliver.