Cuba is facing fuel shortages, but the immediate aviation problem is jet fuel. Cuba warned airlines that jet fuel refueling at Cuban airports could be unreliable during a defined window, roughly Feb. 10 to March 11, 2026. When an airport cannot guarantee fuel, scheduling stops being a plan and turns into a gamble.
Canada felt it first. Air Canada suspended flights, and other Canadian leisure carriers followed with suspensions and schedule changes. That matters because Canada is one of Cuba’s main winter tourism pipelines and one of Havana’s cleaner sources of hard currency. If that lift drops, Cuba loses visitors fast, and the cash register slows down with it.
Airlines can try workarounds, but none are clean. One option is tankering fuel, which means carrying extra fuel from the departure airport so you do not need much refueling in Cuba. That adds weight, and weight costs money. Another option is routing out to refuel somewhere nearby. That adds time, fees, and missed connections. Either way, reliability takes a hit, and leisure travel is sensitive to reliability. People will pick a different destination if the trip turns into a hassle.
Zoom out and the reason shows up. This is not only a Cuba story. It is a supply-and-pressure story with Venezuela and Mexico in the loop, and the United States holding leverage through trade and financial risk.
For years, Venezuela was a primary supplier. When that flow shrank, Cuba got squeezed. You can see the squeeze when the government starts rationing fuel to protect essential services. That is not a debate club topic. That is the system operating in emergency mode.
Mexico became the backfill after Venezuelan shipments slowed or stopped. Then Mexico paused shipments too. The reported reason is U.S. pressure, including threats of tariffs on countries that send oil to Cuba. That is the modern playbook. You do not have to sanction everyone directly. You make the cost of helping Cuba high enough that suppliers back away on their own.
Mexico’s choice is not hard to understand. Mexico is tied tightly to U.S. trade. A tariff threat is not symbolic. It is a direct hit. So Mexico shifts to a safer lane. Humanitarian aid can move with less risk. Fuel shipments are the tripwire.
Other countries are in the loop even when they are not delivering fuel. Russia calls the situation critical and blames the U.S. blockade. Chile and others send aid. Those moves matter politically, but they do not refuel airplanes. The operational constraint stays simple: energy in, flights out.
Now for the whole enchilada. Aviation is the tripwire. Canada cancels first, Mexico pauses shipments, and Cuba bleeds hard currency by the hour. Then the island cannot buy the next round of fuel, and the spiral tightens. You do not have to argue politics to see it. Watch the fuel truck.
Makes me sad to see our country reduced to a school yard bully because of the regime now running the US.
Hey, it’s just a real estate transaction. He’s been doing this sort of thing for years.
The people of Cuba deserve better than the Castro regime and their successors. Hopefully the US is helping that process along.
If it hasn’t done a thing in 40 years, it isn’t going to change anything now.
Gary, Your point is well taken. I think there is a difference in the present today. Cuba has always required a sugar daddy to prop them up who enjoyed putting a finger in the eye of the USA. Until now there was always someone to take that roll and bail them out.
Cuba still has global sympathizers, but lack either the means or the will.
“The people of Cuba deserve better than the Castro regime and their successors. Hopefully the US is helping that process along.”
The people of Cuba deserve their sovereignty which includes picking their own leadership. The US has economically sanctioned Cuba since Castro thru and including the present leadership. The purpose of economic sanctions is destroy the economy, starve the population, with the hope of creating civil war, with the ultimate goal of regime change, with the US installing a US sympathetic puppet allowing the US to “govern” via their economy, with what the US determines to be “good” for them. 66+ years of squeezing the life out of Cuba! End result? We exploit their resources, their labor, and they get the crumbs. Now, we just took the last bit of life out of them cutting off ALL fuel not just Jet A. That will teach ’em we really want a better life for them. Naturally, under the banner of US national security, stealing their sovereignty is our moral and legal right including our obligation to decide what is best for them because we know what is best for the whole planet. I mean look at America’s shining example of freedom, morality, prosperity, and integrity whose government is chosen by the people for the people. We are the global crown jewel of the best damn government money can buy. Just ask us! Hopefully, this process is helping Cuba? Seriously?
Raf, you really soft pedaled the harsh reality of our foreign policy. No way to put lipstick on this foreign policy pig. But you tried.
AvBrief is aviation first, so I stayed in the lane. When Jet A becomes unreliable, airlines cancel, tourism cash evaporates, cargo slows, and the shock rolls straight downhill into imports, food, medicine, and people’s wallets.
That is not propaganda for Havana or Washington. It is the aviation chain of consequences, and it is why this matters.
Canada and the region become collateral damage too. I said that. No lipstick, no slogans, just cause and effect.
Raf,
Now you are talking…saying exactly what needed to be said! Thank you! It was very obvious you “stayed in the lane”. Both of us know the true cause and the inevitable lousy effects. Russ takes a lot of risk allowing op/ed reporting on aviation stories that are entirely politically driven, sometimes clearly demonstrating the human price, sometimes not, with the intentional sociatal “collateral damage” our government puts into motion. Russ then must ride herd on us “cats” knowing our collective responses must thread a very narrow band width our governmental thought police permits. Thank you for getting into the passing lane and stepping on the gas.
I think we’re all circling the same driver: the White House’s Jan. 29, 2026 executive order (EO 14380) put a tariff threat on any country that supplies oil to Cuba, so suppliers back off.
When fuel gets squeezed, international aviation becomes collateral damage first. And worth noting, this structure centralizes the trigger in the State Department, which gives Rubio real leverage over who gets pressured.
Raf,
Indeed, we are circling the same driver. I have spent over 10 years in mission aviation. That put me front and center into the world of economic sanctions, including who initiates it, the devastation and havoc it causes on the indigenous people, the migration flight of refugees who cannot survive when intentional deprivation of the most minimal basics of food and shelter, the dehumanizing of those refugees to an animal status, and with that animal status being normalized, people like Rubio, indeed have leverage causing these cascading consequences that kill millions of people. Now those cascading consequences brought on by these heartless politicians through destroying global soviergnty through these economic sanctions is being felt for the first time by the US population. Whether my fellow countrymen or third world populations are intentionally abused by dehumanization, I hate this abuse and cannot sit silent.
F-35’s have only a 35% operational readiness under peace time use. We can only build 45 per year. Soon, very soon, maybe as close as this coming weekend, those F-35’s, remaining F-22’s, and the rest of our aging fleet of 40-50 year old designs will be at war with a highly sophisticated peer nation. As a naval aviation veteran, I am absolutely sick over what is going to happen to my fellow sailors, pilots, maintenance and support people when they find out they have been lied to about our capabilities and the nation we are about to attack, who has endured 47+ years of our oppressive sanctions… and survived! I know what it is like to be at sea like the crew of the USS Ford now approaching a year, and could be sacrificed at the altar of Rubio. Trust me, we will know in real time what the “actual cost” will be when a promised wonder weapon can only deliver a 35% operational readiness in its attempt to foment yet again another regime change with the cascading consequences to the civilian population of both the US and all of the Middle East including the military combatants of all the participants. Abuse resulting in mass dehumanization and the catastrophic losses no matter who dies is ABUSE and I personally abhor it. Hyperbole? I wish!
Aviation and Trade Compliance (Import/Export), my profession, often meet in many ways from export controls to import requirements, but your article touches the sad part of this situation. It shows how people are being affected by policies from governments regardless of who is right or wrong or in between.
Well done!
Great article Raf… It looks like Cuba’s oil production is around 32,000 barrels per day… do they not have any refining capability for domestic and aviation use?
Tom, thanks for bringing this up.
Cuba does have refineries, but Jet A-1 is still largely an import story. The system primarily runs heavy, sour domestic crude and depends heavily on imported crude and refined products to meet demand. As reported by BNamericas (https://www.bnamericas.com/en/interviews/cuba-faces-mounting-energy-crisis-as-fuel-imports-run-dry), Cuba remains highly reliant on imported fuel flows, which have recently run dry.
When those import streams slow or stop, domestic refining cannot reliably produce and deliver on-spec aviation fuel in sufficient volume.
The February 2026 NOTAMs and airline suspensions show the operational reality. If domestic capacity were enough, airports would not have run out of Jet A-1.
Refining exists. Reliable aviation fuel supply depends on imports. When imports break, flights stop.