The FAA is calling the 2028 plan modernization, but most of it is plain stabilization. Swapping out copper lines, old radars, telecom racks, and mismatched interfaces is maintenance. It doesn’t give us a new ATC system, and it should have been done a long time ago.
They keep using lines like “brand-new system by 2028” and “state-of-the-art automation.” Anyone who knows the NAS knows that a real replacement takes 10 to 20 years. You have to build it, test it, certify it, train everyone, and roll it into more than 300 sites that never shut down. Trying to squeeze all that into a three-year political window just doesn’t hold water.
Peraton’s part tells the real story. They’re not building a new NAS. They’re the integrator who has to make the digital backbone behave: communications, surveillance, automation interfaces, wiring, and power. And they’re working across a strange mix of old electromechanical gear, mid-generation processors, and the geospatial stuff that carries GPS timing, ADS-B, SWIM data, and digital mapping. None of it was built to work together. Getting it to line up is the hard part. We don’t know exactly when Peraton got inside the system, but even with an early start, three years is only enough for stabilization and cleanup, not a new automation platform.
The FAA breaks the job into five buckets. Communications is replacing telecom lines and wiring. Surveillance is getting radar and ADS-B to agree on timing and targets. Automation is cleaning up ERAM, STARS, and the messy interfaces between them. Facilities means fixing power, wiring, racks, and HVAC. Alaska is its own world with remote sites, thin coverage, and brutal weather. All five buckets are stabilization. None of them build a new NAS.
The money lines match the story. The $12.5 billion number is just the opener. Another $20 billion is already in the queue. FAA programs almost always land at about three times the first estimate. A realistic full price is $45 to $70 billion over a decade or more.
Peraton also gets described as a long-standing modernization shop. They didn’t exist before 2017. They bought pieces from older companies and built up fast. The real risk is dependency. When one contractor stitches the whole digital backbone together, you’re tied to them for years.
The public comment period didn’t change anything. The FAA did what it always does: Pick the direction, pick the contractor, then ask for comments after the fact. Pilots and controllers have seen that routine too many times.
The work itself is needed. The telecom backbone is tired. Timing mismatches create headaches. Facilities are aging out. Stabilization is overdue.
But stabilization is all this plan delivers. Nothing in it creates a new NAS by 2028. With the public information we have now, Peraton is expected to steady the current system. Period. The architecture would stay the same, just patched and aligned.
The work is practical. The framing is political.
ditto….
“But stabilization is all this plan delivers.” Better worded…But stabilization is all this plan HOPES to deliver.
What we are promised is great sounding platitudes about what the future holds for the NAS with modernization…remember NexGen?…but first we must stabilize the present patchwork. THEN we can move forward with modern replacement. Rightly noted, Peraton is truly a company “stitched” together in 2017 designed to “mature” for a time like this. To me, it’s no coincidence the same players are in the game today that were ruling the roost in 2017. Nothing prophetic, simply inevitable. Using this business metaphor, I am going to “stabilize” my Radio Shack Tandy 286 by integrating it with my IPhone. Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain, for I am the great Oz. Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain, for I am the great Oz. Repeating ourselves is the hallmark of our government both in words and actions.
TY Raf, for reminding me about how our government including the FAA is needing stabilization and being “stabilize” as we speak. I will update you when I have integrated my 286 with my iPhone. I am sure inquiring minds would like to know.
History101,
Here’s the part that really tells the story. If Peraton were actually building the “brand-new ATC system,” the FAA wouldn’t still have an active RFI asking industry how to design that system. But the RFI for the Common Automation Platform stays open until December 19, 2025. That means the real modernization plan isn’t even defined yet, much less awarded.
So Peraton’s job can only be stabilization. Fix the telecom backbone. Clean up timing. Align interfaces. Get ERAM, STARS, ADS-B, and the rest of the wiring and racks to behave. All needed work, but not modernization. The FAA is framing it as modernization because it reads better in a press release.
The work is practical. The framing is political.
Raf
Raf, ‘Labelling’ is the word for today. Or should I say ‘Distraction.’
Our self-labelled ‘Affordability President’ has paradoxically called the affordability crisis a “con job” and a “scam” perpetrated by Democrats…the FAA is calling this Project 2025 plan for the NAS transformation- to be completed by 2028- ‘Modernization’…
We’re still collectively, and unfortunately reflecting broad, uninformed and entrenched states of inertia in this country where these con-artists and bullies have their way with us almost carte blanche. Though, one has to admit, as George Carlin pointed out, it’s apparently the best we can do.
The movie ‘Don’t Look Up’ comes to mind concerning the reactions from aviation groups to these continuous sleights-of-hand played out from this administration.
Modernization, Stabilization or Automation, it’s all just havin’ fun with Labelization!
It’s ironic that Peraton has a one billion dollar contract with the Pentagon to counter misinformation. Apparently that doesn’t include misinformation about the FAA.
“So Peraton’s job can only be stabilization. Fix the telecom backbone. Clean up timing. Align interfaces. Get ERAM, STARS, ADS-B, and the rest of the wiring and racks to behave. All needed work, but not modernization. The FAA is framing it as modernization because it reads better in a press release.”
If Peraton completes all of the above, let alone in three years, it will be “modernized”… which, as you said, plays well as semantics. For aviation, this “stabilization” masquerading as “modernization” implies the job of modernization is complete as promised. Still the hodgepodge of technologies and slight changes in hardware all working at whatever level of “stabilization” is now defined. At that point… who needs true modernization? Peraton gets paid $32.5 billion plus, and we taxpayers start all over again for the NexGen modernization the FAA is still soliciting answers to. Nice ROI for 2017 startup Peraton. And the beat goes on.
Vayuwings, the label is the whole story here. FAA can patch and integrate the old system right now, but real modernization can’t start until the new plan is actually written and the CAP RFI for that is still open. So the Peraton award might be called “modernization,” but it sure looks more like money to keep the old NAS running while they figure out what comes next. The timing makes you wonder what the $32.5B is really paying for, it isn’t clear yet.
Raf,
Thanks for your typically cogent commentary. Has anyone laid out what the next gen NAS should be? What it should be doing differently and how that should be structured? Given the present regime, I suspect that this stabilization effort is really about cleaning up the really messy bits as a prelude to privatization, by making it more attractive to Dear Leader’s billionaire buddies.
Steve, from what I’ve researched, no one has laid out the actual replacement system yet. FAA, NASA, and contractors like Raytheon, Leidos, L3Harris, Thales, and Peraton all have future concepts, but none of that is an approved design.
The CAP RFI is still open and closes on Dec. 19, which means the FAA hasn’t picked the new architecture. Until they do, real modernization can’t start. The $32.5B award fits stabilization work and a timeline through 2028 to keep the old NAS running while the new plan takes shape.
A full replacement is a much larger job and a much larger bill than what’s on the table now. Stabilization is being sold as modernization, and that clouds what’s actually being done.
Raf,
I understand. I guess where I come from, we first outline the problem (and this is no criticism of you). Assuming for the moment that Peraton, under this present initiative, is able to sufficiently improve the electronic systems in some reasonable time frame, then what else is wrong with the system? I’m not implying that there is nothing else wrong, it’s that I simply do not know. For example, what are the alphabets saying about how the NAS could be improved? From my humble, pedestrian GA perspective, I think we get pretty good service, except perhaps for the NOTAM system, but I suspect that I am missing issues important for the commercial folks, etc.
Thanks
Steve, from the GA’s viewpoint the system looks fine, but the weak spots are underneath. Centers, TRACONs, and Towers still run uneven telecom, equipment, and outage procedures, and the cracks show when the system is under pressure.
The alphabet groups point to reliability, staffing, and throughput, especially as drones and spacecraft ops grow. If Peraton can steady the base, real modernization may finally follow after 2028.
AOPA’s statement: https://aopa.org/news-and-media/all-news/2025/december/04/pr-aopa-welcomes-integrator-announcement-as-atc-modernization-efforts-advance
Thanks!
Steve, from my perspective, GA runs fairly well at the system’s current efficiency level. We don’t feel the strain as much, but the airlines and ATC do, especially on busy days. What follows is just my own deduction after looking at the numbers and the work scope. It helps explain why the difference between stabilization and modernization matters.
Raf,
“Steve, from my perspective, GA runs fairly well at the system’s current efficiency level. We don’t feel the strain as much, but the airlines and ATC do, especially on busy days.”
Agreed. However, the entire ATC was engineered from TCA days to current wedding cake for the airlines. Simple airplanes equipped then was a com radio and transponder max, if even a transponder at all. Nav was looking out the window. GA airports abounded outside or underneath of TCA’s. Ravenswood Airport just outside of ORD’s northern land perimeter was a notable one. I soloed at then Roselle Field’ now Schaumburg Regional Airport with a ceiling of 1200 ft for both TCA then and Class B airspace now. That’s only 9nm from ORD. Got used to counting airliner belly rivets entering downwind for 27/09. We both know that even the most simple GA airplane in or near any urban/suburban environment requires a transponder and ADSB. Those requirements along with having Foreflight loaded on a tablet or cell phone is in most GA airplanes, including very simple airplanes with no electrical systems operating under the controlled airspace. All of this easily available tech for simple airplanes combined with most newer airplanes manufactured in the last 20 years has some sort of glass panel often with autopilots, has thrust a large number of GA airplanes into controlled airspace. And by default of this modern tech via app and cellphone available to all, a bunch of GA airplanes are now in this once exclusive airline environment. Agreed, it is working relatively well until it isn’t as demonstrated by the DCA midair that focused attention to the highly different performance of airliner and helicopter being mixed together at the same time the controller/pilots/instructor is at max task saturation. Throw in a student/instructor motoring along heads down in a 172 within a similar environments proves the ATC system’s current weaknesses. I believe the controller performance is so over the top great, it is being abused and taken for granted, allowing the FAA to count on stabilization, with no real intention of modernization until the next accident brings this to Congress and the public’s attention. Then the next round of PR damage control talking about the need for modernization.
Yep. Agree. They will keep safety wiring the same old box and calling it new, until the next accident and the next round of damage control.
This is all just total; BS. First, the FAA AF (Airways facilities) folks are on site and do a good job of patching up, making to work, bringing ARTS back up, keeping radar systems running now. They, through many tech schools in OKC to stay current, are very good making vacuum tubes and large floppy disks continue to work. This latest super short notice of the soon to be bright future apparently has already handed out billions to someone, with much more promised. Better right now start following the money before it is long gone with no real product offered. Has the public’s opportunity to offer solutions, as if the public has any genuine technical experience in ATC, expired? Wow! Someone, who isn’t just kissing ass and sucking up for a couple of years, needs to genuinely sit down with true experts and ask how. Then go for a carefully conceived plan and begin at the beginning. But…first, the workforce shortage has years to go to get fixed, if it ever does. Been going on for forty years now…but with promises with each administration. Pilots may not, by FAA decree work more than the permitted, whatever that is. But ATC must, by decree work 50 hour weeks, rotating shifts, etc. Anyone see hypocrisy there??? At the moment, equipment is working adequately for the services being provided…most of the time. Is it? That statement adequate and services is a question each controller must answer before they begin at a position of operation. If not, they can ask for a volume adjustment if they feel it is necessary. Of course, we had rather hang right on the edge of the shitter than confess we cant handle it. And that is credit to the folks that can usually make it work, although sometimes we let it get spread too thin. We shouldn’t do so. But then we are being irresponsible while the atmosphere encourages it because of our shame or embarrassment of just saying no. Ain’t no good answer until someone genuinely fixes it. Staffing first.
AF keeps the old bird flying. Peraton is changing the wiring and hoses. The FAA is calling it a new airplane. Staffing is still the cracked spar everyone steps around.