Before I get to the part of this blog where I dismiss the report of the Advanced Air Mobility Interagency Working Group as, to quote one of our commenters, “fairy dust,” I have to express some alarm about one of the many action items the document unrealistically recommends. We were all taken aback by a section of the proposed rules for drones that gave them the right of way over aircraft not equipped with ADS-B and we may be seeing the more fulsome expression of that intent in this document.
Recommendation number 2 in the section on Airspace, one of seven “pillars” of the document’s vision for bringing eVTOLs, STOL airliners, and other novel designs into the National Airspace System, is this: “Support research, development, testing and implementation of new surveillance solutions for low-altitude, high density operations.”
It sounds a lot like the seemingly innocuous bafflegab that achieves new heights in this barely understandable blueprint for the future, but it could have some major impacts on general aviation. When combined with the statement that modernization of air traffic control should include creation of a “new public-private cooperative model to manage low-altitude airspace” it sounds to me like the airspace most of the readers of this publication now enjoy is going to get a lot more complicated. I haven’t the faintest idea what a “public-private cooperative model” is but it sounds like the first step in privatization to me.
I would be happy if someone can show me that I’m way off the mark here.
Setting up a separate organization to keep air taxis from bumping into each other may actually be necessary, but it’s sure to come at the expense of the kind of flying that now goes on in that airspace, and I mean expense in the literal sense. To manage you have to measure and that means every single aircraft that operates where drones, eVTOLS, and other new electric and hybrid aircraft fly will have to have the same “electronic conspicuity” they have. It unleashes a whole set of concerns about rights of way, corridors, and active control of airspace that GA has not even begun to discuss.
But now that I have you ready to write your congressman, I believe you can put your dander down. There is not a snowball’s chance in hell that even a fraction of that jargony tome released on Wednesday will ever get implemented in the 10 years the working group has allotted.
Just for fun, think of the complexity of creating the public-private air traffic control unit envisioned by the group within a purely public air traffic control system. When you consider the backups in the agency now, it’s hard to imagine a multilayered bureaucracy like the FAA having the clarity to create such an animal, not to mention the political and economic challenges. Within 10 years? Hah, I say.
But the danger here is not that the whole thing will somehow get done in 10 years. The danger is that whatever wherewithal the proponents have to pour into this project will be used to cherry-pick components that create the most opportunity. It would seem to me that controlling the airspace below 10,000-12,000 feet would be pretty high on that list.
But let’s not let this amazing development ruin the holidays. Probably nothing will come from any of it.
Probably.
Money / Constituency / Votes.
If air taxis ever do become an economically viable “thing”. And delivery drones the same. And they outnumber GA. Then it’s over for GA.
I suspect the reality will be that at some point the energy density / efficiency requirement of air taxis and delivery drones will not pan out compared to traditional ground systems. Or not enough people will be prepared to pay the premium to make them viable. They may get a niche market – but then they should have to play in the main system (like Concorde had to). The whole system should not have to be changed for the niche.
Hey – maybe in 10 years AI will have figured out Star Trek transporters and it will all be moot anyway…..
Yes, the real risk is a viable business model for high density AAM. The promise of profits coming into focus will attract (even more) capital which will fund (far more) regulatory capture. The current GA “hobby” will be simply outgunned.
A “public-private cooperative model” means selling off the right to use the low level airspace to the highest bidder…
You’re not opposed to good ‘ol free enterprise are you?
Another straw man logical fallacy. Not against free enterprise but unchecked and money empowered free enterprise yes.
Thanks Russ keeping us informed. “new public-private cooperative model to manage low-altitude airspace” <- Yeah this is what happens when corporations and rich people have a greater say in congress.
First, user fees for airports, next, user fees for “managed airspace”.
Regardless of what some entity decides, centuries of precedent says that “right of way” does not extend all the way to “right to collide”. Once a collision is eminent (“extremis”) all parties are responsible for avoiding a collision.
Insurance companies and lawyers will probably drive reality…without a dirt cheap/poor pilot to blame that only leaves the owners’ and SW/algorithm developers’ deep pockets to go after.
Who/what is going to decide every flight is safe for current environment/acft condition?
And everyone’s favorite AAM subject…who cleans the puke off the inside of the canopy after the high net worth non-aero adapted pax disgorge their cookies?
Great editorial piece, Russ. Thank you.
I’ve always been a fan of Science Fiction (Sci-Fi), the FAA guessing the future is not even good Sci-Fi. They are putting the cart before the horse again. Someday we will see delivery drones clutter the sky but, until then, it’s just another Wild A– Guess (WAG).
Ten years from now is so unpredictable. It was only twenty-three years ago we started putting Moving Map GPS, EFIS and ADS-b in aircraft. Let’s first learn from the delivery drones running into each other.
ATC is evolving into something totally different then what it is now. Delivery drones most likely will cut the middle-man out and digitally talk to each other. The drones will post their route on a digital bulletin board map avoiding the other drones posted routes. People talking words back and forth between close proximity vehicles is way too slow. Talking on radios has always been too slow and unreliable. Get used to it an AI Air Traffic Controller is coming to every cockpit near you. 🙂
eVTOL air taxis are a joke although the smarter developers are starting to consider a turbine powered alternator to charge the batteries. This will negate the so called advantages of “zero emissions” (an outright lie when the whole cycle is accounted for) and low noise. After a couple of accidents of these pilotless or autonomous aircraft killing multiple people and likely some on the ground the industry is likely to be shut down.
After a couple of accidents of these piloted aircraft killing multiple people and likely some on the ground the industry is likely to be shut down.
[Damn, I wish we had a ‘delete’ or ‘edit’ option.]
Hi Russ,
I think you perhaps letting in a bit of Orange-Man-bad bias cloud some of the information out of that working group. Pillar #2 clarifies this a bit when it talks about spectrum and I think the partnership in that context is related to mobile phone carriers and Integrated Sensing and Communications (“ISAC”) which is being touted and studied as a 6G wireless service use case. The idea being that mobile phone companies wireless networks have the ability to function as a high refresh, low altitude, high detail radar system.
This kind of system for non-participating targets — be it UAS, no electrical aircraft, or even birds — would be necessary to manage a dense low altitude air space environment. No traditional air surveillance radar system operated by the government or a private entity can provide this kind of information for ATC.
For a just a small representative sample of the issue, check out is link about ISAC: https://hdiac.dtic.mil/articles/integrated-sensing-and-communications-for-small-uav-applications-in-cellular-networks/
ISAC is some pretty amazing technology, if it works, seemingly make it possible to see things in the radio frequency domain, passively, that folks haven’t seen before. For a more practical, already in use, example see the modern body scanners used at airports today in leu of metal detectors, like: https://www.rohde-schwarz.com/us/products/aerospace-defense-security/security-scanner/qps201-security-scanner_63493-332676.html
Not sure how Trump figures in this but regardless of the technology being used the point about adding a private partner stands and is perhaps more .important than ever if it involves the telecoms. I’ll read up on ISAC.