As eVTOL transportation inches toward reality, a variety of industry observers are trying to make sense of the impact it might have on the current aviation industry and it all seems to add up to varying degrees of pilot shortage. Urban Air Mobility pilots will have different qualifications than the commercial fixed-wing and helicopter pilots currently flying, and the first batch will be trained by the test pilots who are currently wringing out the first crop of aircraft, most of them multi-copters. As they become certified, the deployment is expected to be rapid to fill pent-up demand, but the bottleneck will likely be getting pilots certified.
The first eVTOLs could be operational as early as the end of this year and that has the prognosticators doing their thing. According to the Gulf News (the Middle East is an early adopter) estimates range from an immediate need of 19,000 pilots to an optimistic prediction of 60,000 pilots required by 2030. The work will be different from that of traditional pilots. The short shuttle flights in potentially crowded airspace will put demands on pilots likely not fully understood, so workload issues could also come into play.
My inner voice says “this just ain’t gonna work”. Reality says they’re certainly gonna try. But it’s going to be painful.
What separates these from helicopter use now? Missions seem identical for most use. Just many more flying machines running around here and there, see and be seen…hopefully. As they approach airports, they will have to be handled as the tower might their helicopter traffic……I guess.
Can’t get away from the thought. These designs with rows of props look more like giant juice blenders than air taxis. FAA certification is still 3 years away. The pilot pool is thin and there is no powered lift training pipeline. 60k, 30k, or even 19k pilots by 2030 is fantasy.
See I was labouring under the assumption that these were all going to be autonomous, no pilot.
As with electrifying surface transportation like auto and train, the world is advancing into semi and fully autonomous vehicles at determined speed, mostly led by China. I have a colleague who does business there, he says it’s like going from our sunset into their dawn tecnologically. And the Middle East is clear-eyed also as the piece points out. They’ll have no problem getting the new pilots, imo.
The US, still unable to read the room and wondering where the magic has gone, is actually working against its own viability through naysaying, electric EV grid dismantling, eliminating solar and progressive tax incentives, governmental takeover of tech, and stifling higher education. This makes everything associated with swift advancement into electric transportation including eVTOL nearly impossible.
Gas and Oil, 1 – Citizens, 0.
Automated electric trains own the trackway they operate on which is a very expensive proposition. Unpiloted random surface electric transportation will likewise prove to be very expensive. Estimates of needing 20,000 to 60,000 new eVTOL pilots seems wildly optimistic IMHO. The insurance and liability folks will ultimately determine how much of this technology will see the light of day and become mainstream. As for present day decision making here in N.A. it seems to be one step forward, tripping and then two steps backward.
Just lower qualification requirements. Most people with a pulse can push buttons and observe. I’d still consider trying to operate these things remotely. Not a single good reason to be on board and waste payload + no good reason to shred a perfectly good operator along with the contraption and passengers – each time a Amazone drone hits one of these things.
I was able to fly the Joby simulator at OSH this year. It was a fun event. It’s not as intuitive as one would expect. Not difficult, and wouldn’t take too long to get comfortable. Still, one would need lots of time before flying pax.